Report of the
Lancet Countdown
The latest report from the Lancet Countdown Asia tracks progress on health and climate change in China.
The data attributes the health risks of climate change to human activities and providing examples of feasible and effective climate solutions.
The fourth iteration of the China report, it monitors progress across 28 indicators in five domains. This report was compiled with the contribution of 76 experts from 26 institutions both within and outside of China.
Key Messages
Human-caused climate change is contributing to rising health hazards
The record-breaking heat and droughts of 2022 were associated with increased adverse health outcomes. Human caused climate change caused increases in wildfire exposure, heatwave-related mortality, heat-related work loss, and loss in safe outdoor physical activity.
Steady progress in climate change adaptation, with little emphasis on health
China made steady progress in climate change adaptation in 2022. Transitions in the energy system coupled with air quality control measures considerably lowered greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. However, coal consumption growth posed a persistent health risk, and health was rarely prioritized in current mitigation and adaptation actions.
Exploring future opportunities for health-centred responses
We present five evidence-informed policy recommendations to harness opportunities to deliver a safer, healthy future for people in China, including: developing renewable energy; harnessing the synergies of carbon reduction and improved air quality; establishing meteorology-informed early warning systems for health; promoting research on extreme weather events; developing tailored health adaptation guidelines.
Explore key findings of this year’s report
The 2023 China report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: taking stock for a thriving future
HEALTH HAZARDS, EXPOSURES, AND IMPACTS
A changing climate has profound implications for human health, with more frequent heat waves and extreme weather events, changing patterns of infectious disease transmission, deterioration of food and water resources, impacts on socioeconomic conditions, and the exacerbation of existing health challenges around the world. Indicators in this section track the multiple ways in which climate change threatens human health and wellbeing.
1.1.1 Heatwave Related Mortality
Heatwave-related mortality increased by 342% compared with the historical baseline in 2022.
1.2.1 Wildfires
In 2018–22, the national annual average wildfire exposure increased by 33.65% compared with 2001–05.
1.3 Climate sensitive infectious diseases
The vectorial capacity for dengue transmission increased in 17 provinces in China between 2004 and 2021 due to changing climatic conditions.
ADAPTATION, PLANNING, AND RESILIENCE FOR HEALTH
With climate change increasingly threatening the health and wellbeing of populations in every country, actions to build resilience and adapt to climate change are urgently needed. This section tracks how communities, health systems, and governments are understanding the health risks of climate change, the strategies and resources they are deploying, and how adaptation and resilience measures are being implemented globally.
2.1.2 Air conditioning – benefits and harms
From 2011 to 2022 are estimated to have averted 38,195 adult deaths in China.
2.2 Climate information services for health
In 28 out of 30 responding provinces in China, meteorological data are shared with health-related departments.
2.3 Health risk early warning system
In 2022, the total population covered by the warning services of extreme heat and cold spell is 31.85 million.
MITIGATION ACTIONS AND HEALTH CO-BENEFITS
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is essential to limit the health threats of climate change. Simultaneously, many of the interventions required to mitigate and adapt bring enormous benefits for human health and wellbeing in the form of cleaner air, healthier diets, and more liveable cities. Tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century. Indicators in this section track the world’s efforts to mitigate climate change, and the effective and the health benefits of this response.
3.1: Energy system and health
In 2022, the carbon intensity (CI, kgCO2/US$) of the Chinese energy system dropped 4.4% relative to 2021, driving a 1.5% drop of CO2 emissions despite a 3% increase of GDP.
3.2: Clean household energy
From 2010 to 2020, China’s domestic energy consumption per capita increased by 67.0%, and the share of solid, highly polluting fuels (e.g. coal) in total energy use decreased by 60.4%, accompanied by 33.8% decrease in absolute use.
3.3: Air pollution, transport, and energy
282,400 of premature deaths were avoided between 2015 and 2020, due to the implementation of Three-Year Action Plan for Winning the Blue Sky Defense Battle. In more than 70% of cities, the annual average concentrations of PM2.5 were below 35 μg/m³ (WHO Interim target 1 of PM2.5 concentrations).
ECONOMICS AND FINANCE
The health impacts of climate change have profound economic implications. This section tracks the economic costs of the health impacts of climate change and its drivers, as well as the extent to which the world’s economy and financial systems are enabling the transition to a health-promoting, zero-carbon economy.
4.1.2 Economic costs of heat-related labour productivity loss
The national economic costs of heat-related labour productivity loss reached a new record high in 2022, amounting to $313.5 billion (1.91% of GDP).
4.1.4 Economic losses due to climate-related extreme events
National economic losses due to climate-related extreme events declined for the second consecutive year, to US$52.0 billion (0.32% of GDP) in 2022, after peaking at US$99.4 billion (0.68% of GDP) in 2020.
4.2.1 Investment in new coal and low-carbon energy and energy efficiency
However, the investment in new thermal power generation in China increased by 25.9% (from $10·7 billion in 2021 to $13·5 billion in 2022) because the unit cost of installing new capacity had increased by 40.0%.
4.2.4 Production-based and Consumption-based attribution of CO2 and PM2.5 emissions
In 2017, 24.3% of all of China’s CO2 emissions were attributed to the net trade of goods and services between China’s provinces, and 15.0% were from the net production of goods and services in China exported to other countries.
PUBLIC AND POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT
Public and political engagement underpins the foundations of the world’s collective response to climate change, with reductions in global emissions at the speed required by the Paris Agreement depending on engagement from all sectors of society. This working group tracks key actors’ engagement with the links between health and climate change, including in the media, national governments, the corporate sector, and the broader public. The indicators in this section track the links between health and climate change in the media, national governments, the corporate sector, and the broader public.
5.1.1 Media coverage of health and climate change on social media
Compared to 2021, the number of posts related to climate change and health in 2022 increased by 109% (288 vs. 138).
5.3 Coverage of health and climate change in scientific journals
From 2009 to 2022, the publication of climate change and health articles in China grew drastically, with articles in English language journals increasing by more than 6-fold (500 vs. 66).
5.4 Government engagement in health and climate change
During 2008-2022, about 6.1% of climate-related articles from relevant government websites are related to climate and health topic.
Dr Shihui Zhang, co-first author of the 2023 Lancet Countdown China Report
“Climate change is already impacting our health. All sectors of society need to take action, intensifying efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and protect our health.”
Prof. Chi Zhang, Vice Director of the Lancet Countdown Asia Center
“China is today presented with a unique window of opportunity: Effectively addressing the public health risks posed by climate change through policy action could yield benefits for generations to come. Coupled with practical evidence provided by scholars and disseminated by the media, this process can foster public awareness and behaviour change to protect our health.”
Dr. Chao Ren. the Working Group 2 Lead of the 2023 Lancet Countdown China Report
“The climate change challenges we face go beyond any one individual, discipline, university or nation. We should all work together to urgently address these challenges and make real impacts to society”